The Result of Power Vacuums in the context of the Hobbesian state of nature
Ibrahim Athif Shakoor
This commentary was first published on this blog site on 22nd June 2015
“With the predictability of the sun rising in the East and setting in the West, power vacuums … give birth to extremists–religious or otherwise. There are no exceptions. Ruthlessness and fanaticism flourish in a Hobbesian state of nature”. Bruce Fein
Hobbes is famous for having described the state of Nature, the pre-state existence of individuals as living a life that is “solitary, poor, nasty, brutish, and short”. In treatises published in the 17th Century Hobbes described the daily existence of people, before states were created, as being in a perpetual state of “war of all, against all”.
While no one can, actually testify to the actual nature of pre-state individuals, there are many occasions when power vacuums get created in modern day societies, “when the ordinary conventions of human beings are thrown into confusion”.
Many modern states; states that call themselves modern, dismantle existing power structures for political reasons. Claiming the moral high-ground, affirming a legal precedent, or calling on the tenets of a divine revelation are just some of the pretexts used to dismantling existing power structures.
Power structures, take different forms, many guises and are the result of decades, if not centuries of political maneuvering often enforced with ruthless determination. Existing power structures, because they are in fact existing, are fashioned out of years of struggle and therefore and take into consideration, the reality of the ground. The structure may not be orthodox or to the liking of many. But they exist and function. They are the result of a balancing act, fashioned over time with patience and diligence.
Nobody claims, that Saddam Hussein was a just and a benevolent ruler. Not by a wide margin. Yet somehow, over time he had cobbled together a state that functioned. Even if it was NOT to the liking of the majority of the population; it was functional.
Yet, at times moral outrage takes over. Saddam is a mass murderer he must be brought to justice. Gazzafi is a devil he must be vanquished. Hafiz and Bashar Assad, father and son, are fiends and monsters they must be destroyed.
Leaders and politicians, sometimes, quite often get on the moral high horse and wander the desert claiming to be led by divine inspiration. Yet, history has shown, with great clarity, that when they destroy the existing power structure, without adequately planning for an alternative, in fact a better system, something worse, in fact something inimical to their objectives, tend to coalesce.
Israel; because of their deep dislike of Yasser Arafat and what he stood for, crippled the PLO and its moderate Fatah faction and apparently ensured the death of Arafat by radio-active poisoning. The result is the emergence of a group that is more radical, and less willing to negotiate; Hamas who now govern the Gaza Strip. Attempts to destroy Hamas only results in more radical outcomes as was recently seen in the utter inability to with the War of attrition; the latest manifestation being Operation Protective Edge from 8th July to 5th August 2014 resulting in 2,200 deaths; the vast majority of which were innocent Palestinian civilians.
Hezbollah, gained its strength, loyalty and its reputation, when Israel successfully dismantled the existing power structure in much of Lebanon, mostly by destroying the Palestinians who held sway over large areas of Lebanon before they were ousted. Al Qaeda and Taliban and the present yet more dangerous manifestation of them; ISIL, are, according to many historians the result of the power vacuum forcibly created in Afghanistan following the forced ouster of Soviet troops in 1989.
The American Neo-Cons and their philosophy of the Bush Doctrine of ‘preemptive war’ is largely responsible for the dismantling of the power structure in Iraq, with no alternative strategy. Today, while so many (13 and counting) are jostling to be the Republican candidate, not one of them, not even Jeb BUSH is willing to the defend the decision of George Bush to invade Iraq. In fact, there are many astute political commentators who state quite unequivocally that ISIL was created out of the power vacuum created in the Middle East by American Policy and actions. (The quote at the beginning of the article is from a Bruce Fein article published on 10th June titled “Rand Paul Is Right: Republican Neocons Created ISIS” in which the author also goes on to say that ‘The Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) was created and is fueled by Mr. Paul’s lobotomized neocon rivals.”
The System of the Balance of Power, the power structure that defines political life in any country, is established over time, through struggle and effort. It is never, even in the most established of democracies, rigid and unyielding. (Witness the shift of power in the Republican Party because of the Emerging power of the Tea Party). It shifts and changes slowly and majestically, but rarely with tectonic shifts. However, leaders and opinion makers who attempt sudden shifts in the political dynamism, often, as history have repeatedly shown, create a power vacuum, without adequately prepared for or even anticipating the change. In such instances and quite often, such vacuums are filled by more extreme elements, less reasonable and more willing to test doomsday scenarios.
Here in the Maldives, two repeated Presidential Elections have shown to us, how delicate the balance of politics is in the country. If anything, it demonstrated in quite a forthright manner the degree of divergence of opinion. No one party could quite get a majority and both times a messy coalition; with tragic results, were necessary to win a majority.
An Island by Island analysis of voting results demonstrate how slim the margin was in deciding the results of the two presidential elections. Often only a two digit difference. Rarely was the difference in hundreds, even in the biggest of islands. Yet governments assumed, and continue to assume, that the population can be Oh so easily swayed and bent to their will.
Today, with the reality of how politically split we are as a country, we are witness to several attempts to dismantle the existing structure of politics in this country. To remove from power, those who paved the roads and patched the alliances that define political reality of today.
Political leaders, fervently believe that they, and only they, know the road to salvation. That they know what’s right and what the people want. For, after all that is who a politician is; a person with a tendency towards a misguided belief in personal omniscience.
Maybe, it is time, to reach across history and take some lessons to heart. To study a little bit about the verdict of history when existing power structures are abruptly taken down. The results and the consequence. And perhaps go about it, if you absolutely have to, with a little more wisdom and a lot less arrogance.